Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026 · By Juan Reina · We inform; we don’t tell you what to buy or sell. Prices are Wednesday, Nov. 4 closes.
Quick answer
- How far it has fallen: the NYSE-listed ADR EC closed at $15.92 on Wednesday (−3.75%). In Bogotá the share ended at COP 2,555 (−5.19%), 17% below its 52-week high of COP 3,080 and 8.1% below last Friday’s close.
- Why: Brent crude dropped from about $113 to $94.62 a barrel in three sessions on signs of U.S.–Iran de-escalation. Ecopetrol earns most of its revenue from crude and fuels, so its stock tracks oil closely.
- Next catalyst: third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 10; conference call Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 9:00 a.m. ET (same as Bogotá time since U.S. clocks changed on Nov. 1).
- Dividend angle: depending on the payout, the 2027 dividend could land around $0.97 to $1.59 per ADR before Colombian withholding (our scenarios below), a 6%–10% yield at today’s price.
Sources: BVC and NYSE closes, Ecopetrol guidance, MarketBeat consensus. Exchange rate used: COP 3,183 per dollar.
Why Ecopetrol stock is falling
Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC; BVC: ECOPETROL) is Colombia’s state-controlled oil company and the country’s largest by revenue. One ADR equals 20 local shares, so the dollar price moves with two things: the share price in pesos and the USD/COP rate. This week both worked against it: crude sold off hard, and a stronger peso is not enough to offset a 5% drop in the local share.
| Price point | Bogotá (COP) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close Wed., Nov. 4 | 2,555 | −5.19% on the day |
| Close Fri., Oct. 30 | 2,780 | −8.1% since |
| 52-week high | 3,080 | −17.0% from high |
| Year to date 2026 | — | +35.5% |
Context matters: even after the drop, the stock is still up more than a third in 2026. The selloff is about oil, not about a new problem inside the company. The question for Nov. 10 is how much of the quarter’s high oil prices made it to the bottom line.
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What to expect from Q3 earnings on Nov. 10
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 (company guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (COP trillion) | 2.8 | 6.06 | 4–5 |
| Revenue (COP trillion) | — | 40.2 | 33–36 |
| Production (k boe/d) | — | 706 | 740–750 |
For the ADR, Wall Street consensus compiled by MarketBeat stands at $0.606 EPS and $10.24 billion in revenue. Three items to watch on the call: the fuel-price stabilization fund (FEPC) balance, which Ecopetrol projects at COP 8–12 trillion by year-end; production versus the 740k–750k barrel guidance; and any early signal on the 2027 dividend.
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Try Koyfin → · Affiliate linkThe 2027 dividend in dollars
| Scenario | COP per share | USD per ADR* | Yield at $15.92 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low payout | 154 | $0.97 | 6.1% |
| Mid payout | 169 | $1.06 | 6.7% |
| Higher payout | 231 | $1.45 | 9.1% |
| Highest scenario | 253 | $1.59 | 10.0% |
| Paid in 2026 (reference) | 121 | $0.76 | 4.8% |
*20 shares per ADR at COP 3,183 per dollar, before Colombian withholding tax and depositary fees. Scenarios are our estimates based on 41,116,694,690 shares outstanding; the board and shareholders decide the real figure in March 2027.
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What it means for U.S. investors
- Currency risk is built in: a stronger peso lifts the ADR in dollars; a weaker one cuts it, even if the Bogotá price is flat.
- Retirement accounts: EC trades like any NYSE stock, so it can be held in a brokerage IRA or Roth IRA. Foreign withholding on dividends inside an IRA usually can’t be recovered through the foreign tax credit.
- Diversified alternative: the COLO ETF (formerly GXG) holds Ecopetrol together with Grupo Cibest (CIB) and other Colombian companies.
- Oil exposure: EC behaves as a leveraged bet on Brent; an earnings beat may not lift the stock if crude keeps falling.
Related: Ecopetrol (EC) stock and dividend 2026 · Colombia stock market outlook · Why the Colombian peso is so strong · Versión en español
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FAQ
Why is Ecopetrol (EC) stock down today?
Mainly because oil fell. Brent dropped from about $113 to $94.62 a barrel between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4, and EC lost 3.75% on Wednesday to close at $15.92.
When does Ecopetrol report Q3 2026 earnings?
Ecopetrol reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, with a conference call on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
What is the EPS estimate for Ecopetrol Q3 2026?
Consensus compiled by MarketBeat is $0.606 per ADR on revenue of $10.24 billion. Company guidance points to COP 4–5 trillion in net income.
How many Ecopetrol shares are in one ADR?
One EC ADR on the NYSE represents 20 ordinary shares traded in Bogotá.
How much could the Ecopetrol dividend be in 2027?
Our scenarios range from COP 154 to 253 per share, about $0.97 to $1.59 per ADR before withholding, versus COP 121 paid in 2026. The final figure is set in March 2027.
Is Ecopetrol stock a buy before earnings?
We don’t make recommendations. The stock depends heavily on oil prices and the peso; check your own goals and risk tolerance or talk to a licensed advisor.
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