Published Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, for Monday, Nov. 9 and the week ahead · BVC hours 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. Bogotá time (same as ET) · By Juan Reina
Colombia outlook in 30 seconds
- COLCAP at 2,485.26, roughly flat on the week; support near 2,460, resistance at 2,500–2,515.
- Ecopetrol reports Q3 on Tuesday, Nov. 10 (call Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. ET). Company guidance: net income of COP 4–5 trillion; Wall Street consensus EPS about $0.61 per ADR.
- EC ($15.55) fell almost 10% this week, more than the local shares, because the peso also weakened.
- U.S. CPI Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET could move the dollar and the peso (now near 3,240).
- Holiday: Colombian markets are closed Monday, Nov. 16.
We inform; we don’t give investment advice.
Calendar (ET)
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon., Nov. 9 | BVC and NYSE open normally |
| Tue., Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. | U.S. October CPI |
| Tue., Nov. 10 | Ecopetrol Q3 results |
| Wed., Nov. 11, 9:00 a.m. | Ecopetrol earnings call |
| Mon., Nov. 16 | Colombian holiday (BVC closed) |
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Open TradingView → · Affiliate linkEcopetrol earnings setup
Ecopetrol guided to Q3 net income of COP 4–5 trillion on revenue of COP 33–36 trillion and output of 740,000–750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Investors will also watch the fuel-price stabilization fund (FEPC) balance and any hint on the 2027 dividend. Brent’s sharp drop this week is a headwind for Q4 expectations. Full preview: Ecopetrol (EC) Q3 earnings preview.
Currency risk
This week showed how the exchange rate drives dollar returns: Ecopetrol rose 3.2% in Bogotá on Friday, yet EC was flat because the peso weakened after the strong U.S. jobs report. A hot CPI on Tuesday could push the dollar higher again. Background: why the peso is so strong in 2026.
Related: Colombia close, Nov. 6 · U.S. market next week.
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Try Koyfin → · Affiliate linkEcopetrol earnings: three things to watch
- Net income versus guidance. Ecopetrol guided to COP 4–5 trillion for Q3, down from COP 6.06 trillion in Q2. Wall Street consensus for the ADR is about $0.61 per share on roughly $10.2 billion in revenue.
- Production. Guidance is 740,000–750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 706,000 in Q2. Hitting the top of the range would help offset lower oil prices.
- Cash and the dividend. The balance owed by the government’s fuel-price stabilization fund (FEPC), projected at COP 8–12 trillion by year-end, affects cash available for the 2027 dividend. Ecopetrol paid COP 121 per share in 2026; at 20 shares per ADR, that was about $0.76 per EC share before withholding at current exchange rates.
Scenarios for EC holders
| If… | Possible reading | Currency effect |
|---|---|---|
| Results beat and production rises | Relief after a nearly 10% weekly drop | Helps if the peso holds near 3,240 |
| Results in line | Focus shifts to oil and the dividend outlook | Neutral |
| Results miss or weak cash flow | More pressure on EC and the COLCAP | Losses amplified if the dollar rises after CPI |
These are general scenarios, not forecasts or recommendations.
Taxes and holding EC in a U.S. account
EC trades on the NYSE like any U.S. stock and can be held in a taxable brokerage account or an IRA. Colombian dividends are typically subject to withholding in Colombia; in a taxable account a foreign tax credit may offset part of it, while inside an IRA it generally cannot be recovered. Rules depend on your situation, so check with a tax professional. More context: Ecopetrol (EC) stock and dividend 2026.
FAQ
When does Ecopetrol report Q3 2026 earnings?
Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, with a conference call on Wednesday, Nov. 11, at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Is the Colombian stock market open on Nov. 16, 2026?
No. It is a public holiday in Colombia.
How could U.S. CPI affect Colombian stocks?
A hot reading could lift the dollar and Fed-hike odds, which tends to weaken the peso and lower the dollar value of EC, CIB and COLO.
What is the EPS estimate for Ecopetrol’s Q3?
Consensus compiled by MarketBeat is about $0.61 per ADR on revenue of roughly $10.2 billion.
How many Ecopetrol shares are in one EC ADR?
One EC ADR represents 20 ordinary Ecopetrol shares traded in Bogotá.
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