Published Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, for Monday, Nov. 9 and the week ahead · Market hours 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET · By Juan Reina
What to watch next week
- Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET — October CPI. After 165,000 new jobs, a hot inflation print would cement bets on a Dec. 9 rate hike (already above 65%).
- Monday: no major data; watch whether chip stocks extend Friday’s rebound after the Nasdaq’s worst week in months.
- Wednesday, Nov. 11 — Veterans Day: stock markets open, bond market closed.
- Ecopetrol (EC) earnings on Tuesday for Colombia exposure.
All times Eastern.
Calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon., Nov. 9 | No major data | Follow-through after Friday’s chip bounce |
| Tue., Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. | October CPI | Key input for December hike odds |
| Tue., Nov. 10 | Ecopetrol Q3 earnings | EC and COLO |
| Wed., Nov. 11 | Veterans Day | Stocks open; bonds closed |
| Dec. 9 | FOMC decision | Hike odds above 65% |
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Open TradingView → · Affiliate linkCan chips recover?
AMD (+11%), Micron (+5.1%) and Nvidia (+2.8%) bounced Friday, but semiconductors still had a brutal week: Micron −22%, Intel −17.7%, Nvidia −10.7%. The overhang is political: investors are weighing how a Democratic Congress could affect data-center permitting and energy use. Recap: Friday’s close.
Rates and the Fed
October payrolls (+165,000), a 4.1% jobless rate and 0.4% wage growth showed a resilient economy. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.86% and the 2-year near 4.52%. If CPI runs hot, markets could fully price a December hike, which typically pressures growth stocks and lifts the dollar.
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- Index funds: the S&P 500 is still up about 7% in 2026 despite this week’s 3.3% drop.
- Volatility: the VIX eased to 25.6 but remains elevated; expect bigger daily swings.
- Colombia: Ecopetrol’s results and the dollar’s reaction to CPI will drive EC, CIB and COLO. See the Colombia outlook.
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CPI scenarios: what a hot or cool print could mean
| Scenario | Likely market reading | Who it affects most |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation hotter than expected | December hike seen as near-certain; yields and the dollar rise | Growth and tech stocks, bonds, emerging markets |
| In line with forecasts | Focus stays on the Dec. 9 meeting; little change in odds | Limited reaction; stock-specific news dominates |
| Cooler than expected | Hike odds fall; yields ease; relief for rate-sensitive stocks | Tech, small caps, housing-related stocks |
These are typical market reactions, not predictions. The core CPI reading, which excludes food and energy, usually matters more to the Fed than the headline number, especially after this week’s oil price swings.
Why this week matters for the Fed
The Fed meets Dec. 9 with an economy that keeps surprising on the upside: payrolls rose 165,000 in October, wages 0.4% and unemployment dropped to 4.1%. Higher policy rates typically raise borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards and business loans, and increase the yield on savings and short-term Treasuries. For stock investors, the key question is how much of a hike is already priced in. With odds above 65%, a hot CPI would add some pressure, but much of the move may already be reflected in prices.
Sectors to watch
- Semiconductors: after a roughly 15% weekly drop in names like Micron and Intel, any news on data-center permitting or AI spending could swing the group sharply either way.
- Banks: higher rates can support lending margins, but a sharp slowdown would raise credit risk.
- Energy: oil remains sensitive to U.S.–Iran headlines after Wednesday’s 8.7% drop in Brent.
- Consumer: strong hiring supports spending; watch retailers’ commentary as holiday season approaches.
FAQ
When is the October 2026 CPI report?
Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Is the stock market open on Veterans Day 2026?
Yes. U.S. stock exchanges are open on Wednesday, Nov. 11; the bond market is closed.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The FOMC announces its decision on Dec. 9, 2026.
What should investors watch Monday, Nov. 9?
There is no major data, so attention will be on chip stocks and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI.
What is core CPI?
Consumer inflation excluding food and energy, which are volatile. The Fed watches it closely to judge underlying price trends.
How does a Fed rate hike affect my savings?
Savings accounts, CDs and money-market funds tend to pay more after hikes, while borrowing costs on credit cards and loans rise.
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